Whenever one hears the words precious metals, gold and silver spring to mind. But this world is much richer, and precious metals don’t end with the yellow or white metal. The less well known cousins, platinum and palladium, can and do send valuable signals too. Before we examine silver, let’s take a look at something interesting in palladium.


  当人们提起贵金属,首先想到的是黄金和白银。然则这个世界要雄厚的多,而贵金属不仅仅以黄色或白色金属结尾,还有铂和钯这两个不太为人所知的表兄弟,他们也在做着有价值的事情。在考查白银之前,让我们看一下钯中的一些有趣的器材。

 

 

 

  The interesting detail is palladium’s weakness. This precious metal was the one that soared most profoundly in the past few years and while it recovered some of its 2020 declines recently, it appears to be back in the bearish mode as its unable to keep gained ground, even despite the move higher in the general stock market.


  有趣的细节是钯的弱点。这种贵金属是曩昔几年中涨幅最大的一种,直到2020年它显现了衰退,似乎回到了下跌行情,无法找到它的支撑,即使股市处于上涨行情。

 

  The previous leader is now definitely lagging. And you know what was leading? The previous laggard – gold stocks. And you know what is leading now? Silver – as it usually does in the final part of the upswing. The HUI Index is marked with brown in the bottom part of the chart. When leaders are lagging, and laggards are leading, one should recognize that the market is topping – and that’s the key take-away from the palladium and platinum analysis right now.


  以前的辅导者目前一定掉队了。你知道是什么导致的吗?此前显露掉队的是黄金股。并且您知道此刻的趋势是什么吗?银价–平日在上升的最后阶段。HUI指数在图表的底部标记为棕色。当向导者掉队而掉队者领先时,人们应该熟悉到市场达到顶端 —— 这是今朝从钯和铂阐明中得出的要害结论。

 

  Palladium was the leader and platinum was actually one of the laggards. Palladium was down by 0.43 last week. And what did platinum do?


  钯金是领先者,而铂金实际上是掉队者之一。上周钯金下跌0.43。铂金做了什么?

 

 

  

  Platinum rallied by 3.52% last week.


  上周,铂金上涨了3.52%。

 

  The big rally in platinum to palladium ratio is yet another sign from the relative valuations analysis pointing to a nearby top in the precious metals sector.


  相对钯金/钯金比率的大幅上涨是相对估值阐明的又一个旌旗,表明贵金属行业已接近见顶。

 

  Having said that, let’s take a look at silver’s forecast. In case of the white metal, its ratio to gold might be more important at this time than price itself.


  话虽如斯,让我们看看白银的猜测。对于白色金属,此时它与黄金的比例可能比价钱自己更为主要。

 

 

 

  The silver futures are trading at $17.73, and gold futures are trading at $1,773, which means that in case of the futures market, the gold to silver ratio has just moved to the 100 level.


  白银期货的生意价钱为17.73美元,黄金期货的生意价钱为1,773美元,这意味着在期货市场上,金银比率已经上升到100水平。

 

  Earlier this year, the gold to silver ratio had broken above the very long-term and critical resistance of 100. Is it really that surprising that silver is verifying the breakout by moving back to the previously broken level? It’s not.


  本年早些时候,金银比已经冲破了持久和要害阻力位100。真的令人惊讶的是,银价正在冲破回到之前的尺度么?它不是。

 

  The key ratio for the precious metals market has just moved back to the previously broken resistance level and it’s verifying it as support. This is relatively normal that after a breakout, the price or ratio moves to the previously broken level.


  贵金属市场的关头比率方才回到先前打破的阻力水平,而且正在证实它是支撑。这是相对正常的,即在冲破之后,价钱或比率将移动到先前的冲破水平。

 

 

  

  Yes, on a short-term basis, and looking at silver chart alone, the breakout above the April highs and a quick move to the early-March highs was a clearly bullish phenomenon. However, this ignores the fact that silver is known for its fakeouts (fake breakouts) and that looking at its relative performance to gold has been more useful (and profitable) than looking at its individual technical developments, especially if they were not confirmed by analogous moves in gold.


  是的,从短期来看,仅看银价图表,冲破4月高点并敏捷升至3月初高点,显然是看涨的现象。然而,这忽略了以下事实:白银以其“假冲破”而著名,而研究白银相对于黄金的相对表示,要比研究单个手艺成长更有效(且更有利可图),尤其是若是它们没有获得黄金近似走势的证实的话。

 

  Consequently, we view the current action in silver as bearish, not bullish, especially since the gold to silver ratio moved back to the very strong support level (100), which likely means that silver’s strength relative to gold is over, at least for some time.


  是以,我们认为白银当前的走势是熊市,而不是牛市,尤其是因为金银比率回到非常强劲的支撑位(100),这可能意味着白银相对于黄金的强势已经竣事,至少在一段时间内是如许。

 

  All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses are based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are deemed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski’s, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.


  以上发现的所有论文,研究和信息仅代表Przemyslaw Radomski,CFA和Sunshine Profits员工的阐发和观点。是以,它可能被证实是错误的,若有更改,恕不另行通知。概念和剖析基于撰写本文时各论文作者可获得的数据。尽管以上供给的信息是基于卖力研究和认为精确的信息起原,但CFA Przemyslaw Radomski及其同事不包管所呈报数据或信息的正确性或完整性。以上颁发的定见既不是要约也不是购置或出售任何证券的建议。Radomski师长不是注册证券参谋。经由阅读Przemyslaw Radomski的作品,CFA申报您完全赞成,对于您就这些请示中供给的任何信息做出的任何决意,他将不承担当何责任。在任何金融市场中进行投资,生意和投契都可能带来很高的损失风险。Przemyslaw Radomski,CFA,Sunshine Profits的员工和联系公司及其家庭成员可能在任何证券(包罗任何呈报或论文中说起的证券)中拥有淡仓或持久仓位,并可能进行其他采办和/或出售这些证券,恕不另行通知。





  

  This article was originally published in FX empire and was eventually compiled by China silver net.

  该文章最初揭橥于FX帝国,最终由中国白银网编译。  


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